Gold Price Review

Gold breaks $635

2006-11-24T09:09:00.000-08:00

The previous post was made 20 days ago which the gold price is $627, and gold price has been boring at this level until today it rises $9 and breaks $635.

USD has been weak these days, EUR/USD just broke 1.3 and is now 1.3079, which may indicate a further drop of the dollars.

Gold will benefit from the dollar drop. Hopefully it will enter another trading range of $635 - $660. Lets see if $635 shows a good support.

Boring months for the gold, now at $627

2006-11-05T10:38:00.000-08:00

Historical statistics shows that after a first phase of bull run, gold has gone through one and a half year of adjustment period before its last rising phase at 1980.

Gold has dropped back since mid May of 2006. 6 months has finished and the lowest had been around $550 and then struggling between $580 - $660. The 3 previous trading ranges being
$580 - $605
$605 - $635
$635 - $660

No break through is expected at the moment. Otherwise it is likely that the last bull has started. Then will aim for $735 and then the record high $850.

Gold drop from $600, and test $580 again

2006-10-03T10:10:00.000-07:00

Oil falls below $60, lowest since 7 months ago.
Gold follows and falls sharply to test $580 again, dropped $18 in a single day.
Price has been trading in a short range $580 - $620 these months. Generally price is bored around the same price range. Everytime the rise/drop happened so vigorously, but it never broke out of the range.
This situation is expected to last further. But many people start to doubt if the gold bull run has ended already. All that relies on the future trend on USD.

Gold lowest $571 and rebound above $580

2006-09-18T10:39:00.000-07:00

$580 is still a price mark where investors are struggling about. It has been fluctuated around $580 for a few days, and finally managed to stay higher above it today during US morning session. Now it is trading at $586.

Gold touched $584 and rebound

2006-09-12T08:00:00.000-07:00

Gold has been fluctuating around $600-$650 these few months.
Past weeks has been around $610-$630, then dropped suddenly from $640 to $584 in 3-4 days' time.
$580 looks like a support and it stopped dropping at $584 yesterday and formed a rebound to test $600 again. Now it was trading at $592.
Personally I guess $580 would be a good enough short term supporting line. In the long term I still think Gold's future would be bright.

Gold $635 - still trading in range

2006-07-28T10:00:00.000-07:00

Major gauges add to US market gains after GDP report confirms slower economy and raises hopes of Fed pause next month. Dollar drops a bit and falling oil also helps.

Gold gains some dollars and is making around $635. Still in the trading range and waiting for a breakover.

Gold trading range $620 - $650

2006-07-20T10:46:00.000-07:00

Gold dropped from a recent high of $675 after the war crisis has relief in the middle east. The drop was fast and sharp to $620 in a few days, and started a rebound to $655. Now spot gold price is trading at $631, fluctuated between $620 to $650.

Big drop to $650

2006-07-17T09:45:00.000-07:00

Gold drop to $650 after a series of stronger than expected reports helped the USD to bounce back.

Gold drop from day high $675 to $651 now, slipping $24 in about 2 hours. Initial support saw in $650.

Gold break $650 and goes on

2006-07-12T08:45:00.000-07:00

Gold continues to surge above $640, and easily broke $650 today, giving a $13 gain and is trading at $654.8 now.

Lets hope Gold can stand firm above $650, and prepare to break $670, $700 and $730.

Gold keep rebounding, test $640 soon

2006-07-11T09:59:00.000-07:00

The blog has not been updated for a while. But the last post has marked the short term / mid term bottom of Spot Gold at $542.

After reaching $542 which is a mere 0.618 correction to the years' gain, Gold surged rapidly back above $550, trading at range around $580, then break $600 and keep rising steadily to $638 today.

The length of correction during a Bull run can last for 1-2 years. Lets see how long it takes to finish correction and break $730 again !

Gold made $542 and rebounded

2006-06-14T10:00:00.000-07:00

In 2 days time Gold fell from $605 to $542, a large $60 drop which indicated a strong and terrible sell-off atmosphere. The situation was like the final drop, which most of the investors get shocked and decide to cut loss.

However, the gold related stocks in HK (2899,3330) refused to drop. Started off with a day low of -8% decline but end up with a +4% increase. This observation is similar in the case when Gold topped at around $730, where the gold stocks refused to rise correspondingly. This time the stock pattern is similar but in the other direction. It may be a hint that Gold is near its bottom.

Gold broke $600 and free fall to $567

2006-06-13T09:11:00.000-07:00

A terrible sell off initiated after Gold has missed the $600 support. Investors worried about the interest hike will turn capital move away from gold to bond. Gold dropped a terrible $36 to $567. The $575 target was reached in a single day.

Gold has done nearly a 61.8% correction of the total rise. Further drop is possible but unlikly to break down further below $540, since a Gold bull run normally last for 14 years, and it is only in the middle of the bull run. I have confidence Gold will rise back to over $700, and go over $850 in 2 years.

Will Gold test $600 support ?

2006-06-09T06:59:00.000-07:00

The new Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke brought over a thunderstorm to the world stock market. His conversation had always been misunderstood by the audience. In his last speech he revealed that interest rate will increase further in June. This hurts the market as the rate now is already in a critical level to control inflation rate. It has to be done very carefully otherwise the econmony will suffer.

Stock, forex, commodity market all drop more than 10% in 2 weeks time. Gold continues to drop, making a day low $605 and rebounded $10 at the beginning of the US morning session. Now trading at $615.

Historically Gold bull run normally last for 14 years. The current one is running for the 7th year, which a big correction is expected. $600 could be broken, but it doesn't affect the long term uptrend. Personally I think $580-$600 would be a good bet to wait for the next rise.

Gold broke $620, fell to $610...

2006-06-08T09:55:00.000-07:00

Gold fell another $10 after breaking the $620 support. It is now trading at $610.
A 50% correction would be at $590. Just $20 more to go !!

Gold touched $620 again, rebound again

2006-06-07T09:42:00.000-07:00

According to HKEJ, if Gold price need to adjust the whole increase during the year, a 50% correction could take the price down to around $590, a 61.8% correction could take the price to $560. So chance is high that gold may drop to $575.

Personally I don't expect Gold to drop to that low level, because I have gold stock on hand too (^.^).

Today, gold price reach its lowest at $618, and formed a double bottom. Now rebounded $10 to $628. I would rather it has finished correction at this level and start to climb up again.

Gold touched $620 and rebound

2006-06-02T10:20:00.000-07:00

Gold dropped below $620 to as low as $619 today during Asia market session, and afterall rebounded a few dollars immediately.

The rebound continues after a much weaker-than-expected payroll number, raising hopes that the Fed will stop its rate hikes in the June meeting.

Dollars fell further, GPB/USD raised to 1.293 and favoured Gold to jump a little higher to $636 during the US market session.

Short term trading range is still the same, $620-$635, and up one level $635-$670.

Gold drop below $635, next trading range $620 - $635

2006-06-01T07:22:00.000-07:00

Gold broke the $635 support, and initiated another sell-off. The price fell another $20 from $640 and touched $620, now trading at around $625.

Future price is expected to trade within the range of $620 - $635. Some investors start to worry that the Spot gold uptrend has ended, which I think is a normal case in the 2nd phase of the bull run.

It is a test of patience for gold investors. No one knows the future, so always be prepared to handle when the situation is not in favour of you.

Short term Gold trading range $635 - $670

2006-05-31T08:34:00.000-07:00

Gold has been trading within this range for a week. It has settled down after 2 weeks of sell-off which resulted in gold price falling from $730 to $635, a correction of as much as $100.

Yesterday the resignation of US Treasury Secretary John Snow has brought a surprise to the US stock market. He used to be a supporter of strong dollar policy. His left may reveal that the already weak USD will turns weaker in the future. Actually this is a good signal for other forex and Gold in the long run, but in the short term Gold needs time for correction.

$635 is a the price for a minimum correction for gold. For even more correction, it is possible that gold will drop to below $600 before another surge has started again.

Gold rebound to $670 and fell again

2006-05-24T08:48:00.000-07:00

Gold is now trading at $642, dropped $30 from day high $672 in 6 hours.

Spot gold started correction 2 weeks ago, dropped for nearly $100 and tested $635 until it got an initial support. It formed a small rebound and continued to drop again today during US morning session. The supporting line was expected to be around $635. The previous trading range had been $620 - $635 which should show a strong support.

Investors had been too optimistic toward gold price in the past months. According to the "contrary theory", market would often go against the common expectations of the crowd. In the long term I believe gold is still in the uptrend. now gold should be in 2nd phase of the bull run, just the rise last month has been too fast that a long and large correction is necessary for further rise in the future.

Spot gold dropped further and test $635

2006-05-22T07:31:00.000-07:00

Last Friday was a poor day for commodity gold. Price dropped from $680 to $655. The new week comes with a further drop, and it continued to drop during Asia market session, lossing another $18 to day low around $637.

Gold showed a slight rebound to above $650 during US morning session. According to HKEJ, the recent surge of Gold started from $560 and reach $730 in 2 months' time. For a 50% correction, gold should reach $645 which is the current level. A 61.8% correction should reach $625. This is still in a healthy correction range, yet the correction often comes in a fast and unexpected manner.

$680 support missed, Gold drops another $25 to $655

2006-05-19T07:34:00.000-07:00

Spot gold has missed initial support at $675, and started a rapid drop as big as $25 to $655.

Gold has started a short term burst since 24 April after it broke the trading range $620 - $635. (see my previous post) The price was like a sky rocket and kept rising until it broke $700 and made the 25 years record high of $730.

Now a big correction finally started, and it has dropped about $75 which was about -10%. The basic supporting factors has never changed, but at this high price it was not the real demand that drive gold price up. A big portion of the gold inventory was bought by investors and funds. And since gold market (as well as commodity market) is relatively small compared to the world stock market. Any bigger profit-taking action can bring a shock to gold price.

The long term trend is always positive. But in short term the fluctations is unpredictable. I believe if gold missed $650, it should show a strong support at around $635.

Gold new trading range $680 - $715

2006-05-17T09:12:00.000-07:00

Gold surged from $685 to $715, up $30 during Asian session, and back down to $685 after a stronger-than-expected rise in US consumer price report reignites worries about rates. Dollars rebounded again and EUR, GBP vs USD dropped more than 1% during US morning session.

Gold sees resistance at $720 and sees support at $680, now struggling within this range.

Gold shows initial support at $675

2006-05-16T08:51:00.000-07:00

Gold price dropped from its 25 years record high from USD $730 to $675 in a few days, the correction has been $55 or 7.5%.

Spot gold starts to show support at $675, at which it was the last top before Gold broke and surge to above $700. Now it is trading at $685 in the US morning session.

If it does not drop below $675 support, further drop seemly unlikely. Otherwise it may test for support at $630 which was the lower bound of the previous trading range.

Gold big correction on dollar rebound

2006-05-15T07:50:00.000-07:00

World market dropped significantly today following the decline of DOW last Friday. Dollar rebounded after a serious oversold. Gold reacted immediately and dropped $30 to $690, breaking the $700 support without struggle.

EUR/USD dropped from 1.293 to 1.283. Gold initiated a correction after a sky-rocket uptrend. The price surged so fast and so is the decline today. However, while the dollar downtrend is unchanged, Gold is still in its bull run.

DOW drops, dollar weak, Gold uptrend continues

2006-05-12T07:09:00.000-07:00

Gold surge continues today, but fails to test $730 and now retreats $13 to $717.
In the long term the uptrend will continue. However, a short term correction is likely to happen when dollar rebounds after currency settlement by the end of this week.

Some facts about Gold:

- According to WGC (world gold council), in 2005 Q4, demand for Gold has risen to record high of USD $536B.
- During this period, Gold Investment has increased by 26%
- Gold and silver EFTs initiate more investors to take part in it.
- Traditional funds used to include very few gold or commodities in their constituent. They are now getting more involved into buying them as part of the fund constituent.
- Central government are actively increasing their Gold inventory, including China and Japan.

Gold gone mad - day high $725 before retreat

2006-05-11T08:13:00.000-07:00

Gold rules by weak dollars!

Spot good price stands firm above USD$700 for 3 days and even keep rising. Today it rocks again by $15 to $725, makes another 25 years record high and then retreats immediately. Now trading at $715.

US dollar fails to turn stronger despite Fed raise rate again to 5% yesterday. Investors lost trust on dollars and manage to keep less USD investment properties. This situation is unlikely to change in the near future. EUR / USD raises to 1.2816 in the US morning session. Whereas EUR will raise rate soon, investors tend to buy in more EUR or other non-US investment properties.

Short term goal of Gold maybe $750 before a significant correction starts. However, bear in mind, never try to guess the top and shortsell. Always be a trend follower.

Spot Gold price - first attempt to break USD $700

2006-05-09T09:00:00.000-07:00

Gold price climbed nearly $20 in 4 hours to $698, attempt to test the $700 line.

The downtrend of USD is also significant. The short rebound yesterday didn't last long and resume the downside today. EUR / USD is trading at 1.275, which is expected to reach 1.3 in a short while.

Whereas the uptrend of gold is also clear, spot gold refused to drop last year when dollars rises. It broke the rule of thumb that Gold and dollar are always running in opposite sides, aided by the real strong demand for Gold. When dollars turns weak, the uptrend of gold grows more vigorously, neglect the fact that it is seriously overbought.

Spot gold correction starts after making another record high

2006-05-08T07:50:00.000-07:00

The day high is USD $685, then gold starts a slight correction along with all other commodities: copper, platinum, sugar all drop slightly, except crude oil has a bigger decline due to news "Iran said it sent a letter to President Bush offering what it said were new ways to resolve the standoff over its nuclear program" help ease trader's worry to oil supply. oil sank $1.29 to $68.90 in the US morning session.

Recently gold is most sensitive to USD. Dollars rebounds after a serious oversold, and gold reacts quickly. Gold dropped $9 from its high to $676. Correction is very slight compared to its recent level of rise. USD is obviously still in the beginning of its downtrend. EUR will hopefully reach 1.3 in a short while. Gold would probably have broken $700 at that moment.

While some people said Gold is very expensive now, the history highest price is $850 in 1980. Taken the inflation factor, gold should weight over USD$2000 in 2006. Also compared with other commodities, it is the most valuable metal with most supporting reason for its sky-high price.

Gold say no to correction... price reaching $700

2006-05-04T23:09:00.000-07:00

Gold refused to correct and continues to test new high, price has reached another record high of $680 during US market morning session yesterday.

The latest CMX gold price is now trading at $677.33. For the recent 3 days, the lowest spot gold price was $660, and rebounded quickly once touched this point. $660 gives an initial support already, looks like the uptrend will continue.

Talking about the demand of gold, the demand from India, China and US already takes more than 40% of the annual inventory of Gold. However this is not enough to push the price of gold to the current level as high as $670. The only reason is investors buy in a lot of gold futures, and since Gold EFT was taken into effect, the situation was even worse. Looks like $700 is not a problem, but investors pls beware of the high risk.

Gold price into correction after breaking new high $675

2006-05-03T08:54:00.000-07:00

Gold price enjoys a good uptrend for 2 days, which has risen another $20 in 2 days' time to a 25 years record high of $675.

According to survey from the United States Geological Survey in 2004, Global inventory of Gold and Platinum would be used up very soon. Gold will be exhausted after 17 years whereas Platinum exhausted after 14 years.

Giving this fact of the evering increasing demand for Gold from China and India in the recent decades, and people tends loss confidence in dollars and turns to buy Gold. The prolonged uptrend of spot gold is expected.

But the fact might be that most gold inventory are kept by investors. The supply will never change but as demand keeps growing, they are able to control the gold price to whatever level they wish. How high gold price can reach is only depends on how much they wish to earn.

Gold becomes unstoppable, heading to $700

2006-05-01T08:32:00.000-07:00

Gold closed at $651.6 last Friday, with a good start today in monday and climbs to as high as $661. Now struggling in the range of $655-$660 for correction.

Gold looks unstoppable, technically it is going smoothly along the uptrend supported by the 10MA at around $630. RSI has been seriously overbought. But it manages to stay in the high place for a long time correction.

The recent burst in gold price was initiated by dollars turning weak. Technically USD was oversold and a rebound should be coming soon. This would give pressure to other currencies as well as gold. But be reminded that don't try to short-sell gold. It was against the trend and history tells us gold price could go up extensively regardless of how seriously overbought the TA shows.

Gold makes $655, another 25 years record high

2006-04-28T10:13:00.000-07:00

Dollar was very weak since yesterday Bernanke said interest rate will pause or stop very soon. Currency like GBP and EUR surge over 2% in two days.

Gold also rises during US morning session and rise from last close of $633 to $655 (+$19), making another record high since 1980. Weak dollar will continue, gold will get stronger and $700 is near !!

Go Go Gold !! Cheers~

Gold fluctuates on mixed news

2006-04-27T08:18:00.000-07:00

News is all about interest rates. China govt announced tonite that it will increase the leading rate of central bank from 5.58% to 5.85%, effective tomorrow, for the sake of slowing down the boom of credit and investment in the mainland. This affects the global market and gold drops by nearly $10 after the news to $630.

Whereas Bernanke reveals tonite "policy-makers could at some point pause in their 22-month credit-tightening campaign". It is a strong proof that the interest hike will top very soon, if not stop immediately. This brings good news to stock and commodity market. Gold bounce back and testing $640 again during US morning session.

Gold correction finished, ready to test new high again ?

2006-04-26T08:28:00.000-07:00

Gold breaks the trading range of $620 - $635, now trading at $639. Is it ready to test another new high ? This year the highest price has been $642.

US dollar turns even weaker, EUR/USD has broken 1.24 and is trading at 1.2444. This helps Spot gold to push higher. The down trend of US dollar is just at the beginning. I strongly believe it will be weaker and weaker in the mid/long term. Giving the strong support of weak dollars, Gold at $640 is never at its highest position. Further highs coming.

On the other hand, be aware that when people are getting too optimistic towards Gold, it is very likely Gold has seen its top. Few people believe gold could reach $500 when the price was at $420. Few people believe gold could break $600 when Gold was trading at $530. Nowadays, people tend to believe gold will test $700 very soon. Some even thinks it could reach $1000. Is it indicating Gold is near its top ?

Gold trading range - $620 to $635

2006-04-24T09:30:00.000-07:00

Gold price closed last Friday at $632. Today is the beginning of a new week and Gold is trading in a narrow $15 range between $620 - $635. The highest being $642 made last week.

Gold has been rising too quick since it has broken $600. This was caused by the buy back force of investors who has sold Gold futures below $600. The bull guys push it up further and force the bears to cut loss. After that spot gold fell down when the force was gone. It was expected gold will stay in current range for some time to digest. The uptrend is never changed.

Bill Murphy, committee of Gold Anti-Trust Action, predicts gold price will reach $1000 by the end of 2006. If you believe in him, there are still 60% increase to go !!

I'm not that optimistic as Bill, but I believe $850 is reachable.

Rollercoaster continues - Gold climbing up the mountain again

2006-04-21T10:29:00.000-07:00

After the big sell-off of commodity gold last nite, gold has found a support at $610 and started to recover some of its loss today during the US market session.

Last nite Gold drop from record high $641 to $608. As of today spot gold determined a gain of $23 from its lowest, now trading at $631.

When investors has finished a short term profit taking, gold is expected to pick up the rising trend again. The major supporting factors for high gold price has never changed:
- afraid of war
- high demand
- weak US dollars
All factors still exist and help gold price being unstoppable.

Rollercoaster starts... Gold falling from $640 to $608

2006-04-20T10:31:00.000-07:00

Recently Gold continued to test new high after breaking the $600 barrier. It has reached its recent high of about $642, finally retreated today.

The drop was like free fall, in 2 hours time, CMX gold falls without support to $608.

An initial support was found on $610, and quickly rebound to $620, and struggling around this level during US morning session.

The sell-off is broad based. No major cause is found but only due to a heavy profit taking. Besides Gold, most of the commodity futures drop, with silver lossing 13% in a single day. The accumulated gain has been huge and the sell-off is always fast and severe.

Gold surges on weak US dollar

2006-04-19T08:22:00.000-07:00

DOW rises by more than 190 points yesterday, and most of the commodity futures made its new high too.

Gold price is unstoppable, yesterday spot gold is just $618, today it adds another $9 to $627, continue to break the 25 years record high.

US govt has 8450B of debt in 1980, where Gold made its record high $850. Now in 2006, US govt has 84000B of debt, plus the demand of Gold keep increasing from China and India, the rise of Gold is potentially far beyond that value.

Gold keep rising neglect the servere overbought in TA. The problem is when everyone lost confidence in US dollar, they will turn to sell dollars and buy gold, which then helps supporting its high price.

Easter resurrection - Spot Gold continues to break 25 years record high

2006-04-17T11:40:00.000-07:00

Gold enjoyed a good easter with wake up with a US$15 increase in a single day. Now $615. Thanks to Jesus =P

Gold closed at around $599 last Friday, and this Monday it started clear above $600 and keep climbing up. US Dollar turns weak significantly today, supporting GBP, EUR to rise more than 1%. Gold is even stronger and has raised more than 2%.

US Bond is still topped above 5%, but it has been revealed that interest hike is very likely to end in a short while. Along with the commodity uptrend in recent years including sugar, platinum, bronze and gold, it is a safe bet to conclude that Gold price will keep on rising in the coming future.

Someone said a bubble in commodity futures has formed, I tend to agree, as the level of rise has outreached the supporting factors(strong demand, war crisis). But when will it burst ? No one knows.

Gold breaking USD $600 and retreat

2006-04-11T09:15:00.000-07:00

This morning in Asian time it has been an exciting time seeing Spot Gold breaking USD $600 and making a 25 years record high $603.

Unfortunately, it fails to keep the momentum and falls back following the drop of US market. Now the price goes back $596.

During the time 2005-2006 March, the top 5 commodity increase has been:
1) Sugar (110%)
2) Bronze (75%)
3) Platinum (70%)
4) Orange juice (55%)
5) Gold (40%)

Rise of Gold is not huge this recent year. The king is sugar, as it is the raw material for making oil supplement. As oil price rises to near $70 again, people tends to find cheaper alternatives to replace oil. The uptrend of sugar is expected to continue and the rise will be big !

Gold Dip and rebound

2006-04-10T11:06:00.000-07:00

Last Friday Gold dropped $10 from record high $597 to $587.

When people start to worry about a big adjustment is coming, the price climbs back steadily during Asian market session, and to its highest point today at the US market session, spotting $598.

The uptrend of Gold can hardly be changed, as a bull run of Gold usually last for 15 years. The gold surge starts at 2000.(see gold history chart) So Im still optimistic to see Gold reaching $650 this year. Ultimate target is to reach the all time history record $850.

Go Go Gold...

2006-04-06T10:52:00.000-07:00

Gold managed to climb higher than $588, broken $590 after Asian market and staying at $594 after making a day high of $596.

Breaking $600 is basically no problem, next target $650, $700, still possible to push even further ? I have no idea, and it really depends on the big investers how much they want to earn.

General speaking, the demand for gold keep increasing especially from China and India, and the growth of inventory (+1.3% each year) is never enough to satisfy the supply. This supports the raise of Gold price.

Also, Gold price trend is often going in opposite side to USD. After the interest hike, USD is very likely to start bear, then another surge on Gold is very possible.

Gold becomes crazy

2006-04-03T06:45:00.000-07:00

Gold refused to drop back after the surge last week, staying at the high position above $580.

After it has broken the top of last time $574. In theory the measured increase is at least $30, that means Gold could reach over $600 at the new wave this time.

All commodities are in the bull run, and related stocks are all in record high. Anyone still dare to buy in ?

Gold bull runs - heading to $600

2006-03-31T08:16:00.000-08:00

After weeks of boring times, Gold rise followed by Platinum breaking the record high.
The bull run starts at around $550 when spot gold goes up and down in the range $540-$570.

Gold breaks double top ($574) without difficulty and heading towards $600. It reaches a day high of $589 yesterday, and today it stays at $58x level, taking a rest and ready for another surge.

Now $600 seems a easy target to reach, then what's next ? Can it test $700 level, or even $800 ? The history high is $850 at 1980. Is it possible to climb to this level ?

Ref: Gold price history chart

Commodity Gold struggling below $550

2006-03-13T06:49:00.000-08:00

Gold has lost momentum to rise recently.
After forming double top at $570, Gold dropped rapidly to below $550, Now it is selling at $542 only. It has tried to go up $550 several times but still failed.
But analysis still expecting Gold to reach over $600 this year. Now it is time for some rest.
When will the bull starts again ?

Gold future rebounces to break $560

2006-02-28T07:42:00.000-08:00

Gold future (Apr) rise to $561.2 high today. It has dropped $4 yesterday.
Analyst said, if the bull starts, nothing can stop it. Especially for gold market.
It is not a problem of whether it would break $600 barrier or not, it is just a matter of time.
Check out the gold price now, and wait to see when it happens~~

Gold struggles at $555 level

2006-02-27T03:07:00.000-08:00

Today Gold has been so boring.... just stay at $555-$557 level.
No signs of breakup yet... but lessen the overbrought already.

Nothing much to talk about. =P
stay claim and watch the bull runs again !

spot gold rebounce to $558

2006-02-24T09:40:00.000-08:00

Following the big rebound of crude oil, spot gold prices starts to rally and rise $9.5 to a weekly high $558.

The morning session has tested the low $548 and get supported. Then in the afternoon session gold starts to rise. It has been flustrated a lot this week with little gain or loss. Friday showed a significant rise.

The 25-year high is $574 made some weeks ago. Hopefully it will test the record high again if the new bull is confirmed. Check the currnet gold prices here

金市中的假假真真

2006-02-20T10:05:00.000-08:00

再過一段時候，讀者或陸續發現較早前刺激金價狂漲的消息，有些是虛假的，有些則是被忽略而變成更為人們所注視的。

　　可以被視為虛假的消息，最少有二。其一是不少中央銀行積極吸納黃金。據國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的最新資料，在2005年內全球官方的總持金量減少了五百三十五點九噸【表】；不但盛傳可能增持黃金的中國和日本的黃金儲備量根本毫無變動，而且曾表示過有增持黃金意願的阿根廷、南非及俄羅斯三國，其黃金儲備亦未見有改變，南非甚至微減持了零點三噸。

　　其二是產油國的龐大美元收入大量流入金市。最新資料顯示，截至2005年11月，石油出口國在該年實際上淨沽售了零點八噸黃金；石油輸出國組織成員國的黃金儲備量亦幾乎沒有變動，故使其黃金儲備佔外總儲備的份額降至7％，回復到1977年時的歷史低水平。

被忽略的真消息

　　稍後我們還可能發覺不少類似的消息，原來都是虛假的，或者是想當然耳。

　　至於前所忽略的事情則是，由世界黃金協金贊助的黃金證券（Gold ETFs）自2004年秋季起獲得出人意外的迅速發展，截至今年本月上旬，五種黃金證券的銷售量高達四百二十九噸黃金。須知道，四百餘噸的黃金已相當一個國家的儲備量，目前黃金證券所衍生的持金量可居央行的持金量表中的第十二位，次於西班牙而高於台灣。

　　迅速增升的黃金證券需求，加上紐約期金市場中的大投機者所持的淨好倉合約金量，兩項幾乎合共約九百噸黃金。筆者認為這才月前金價狂漲的主要原因。

　　然而，這個行情最近已發生變化，截至本月14日，期金市場的大投機者的淨好倉合約量已降至十一萬八千九百一十四張，即表示較五周前減持了九十二噸黃金。但在此期間，黃金證券的銷量仍在增加，說明了投機大戶已在平倉，零售投資者仍在蜂擁買入，無怪上兩周金市出現大幅調整了。

　　以上關於金市假假真真消息給我們什教訓呢？教訓是在投機市場初傳虛假消息時，我們不宜與其對抗，否則立刻吃眼前虧；但虛假消息盛傳時，心中宜保持冷靜；到虛假消息被戳破，投機大戶退場時，我們才採取相應的行動。

　　本欄相信金市的最終獲勝的是業者即金商，而並非是大投機者，然尚在這類爭鬥中，小投資者所冒的風險極大，往往遭多次重創仍未看到業者的最後勝利。

　　根據上面分析黃金證券銷售行情、投機大戶的動態，以及大多數商品期貨明顯進入調整期等情況，本欄認為金市的中期調整尚未完結。不過，期金的大投機者的淨好倉合約量經連跌四周後有可能回增，這可從最近的金市行情變化可以推估得到。

未平倉合約減少

　　金市先再從552美元向下三次回試535美元，繼而反彈回554美元，卒以552美元收盤。可以說535美元是短期低位，與本欄上期估計接近。金市短期有機會進一步上試557美元，甚至一見562美元，但應提防上試高位不穩回跌至547美元，便有可能跌回540美元之下。

　　期金市場的未平倉合約量縮減到三十三萬一千一百六十二張，說明市勢動量在遞降，本欄不認為上周反彈是新升浪的開始，不可能就此又創新高。

Gold continues the bull steadily

2006-02-20T09:32:00.000-08:00

Gold struggling at $555.9 level whole day. Gold related stock in Hong Kong. (2899, 3330) rise by 3-5% following the big rally of CEI. There had not been any special news which explains the grow, but tonite there is no US market. Sometimes big account will make use of this chance and make profit from creating a violation.

Gold rebounced to $552

2006-02-19T01:07:00.000-08:00

After a long week of adjustment, Gold has reached a weekly low of $535.
And it stands right over this level and attempted to gain back its loss.
In the friday US session, Gold price rised to a weekly high of $555, and close at $552.

It was a good sign to see spot gold close over $550. It is expected that another bull run would be coming and it would test $600 mark at least.

Stay close at gold price, and earn from Gold~~

Commodity Gold adjustment continues...

2006-02-15T09:27:00.000-08:00

CMX Gold price is now $535, dropped $10 from $545 today.
Obviously gold is not ready to pick up another surge yet.
Hopefully it can build a bottom support around $535. If this support is approved, Gold will be ready to test another 25 year high.
On the other hand, if Gold cannot break through $550, it is still in the narrow trading range, and no new upside or download trend formed.
Today I check the history of Gold over the years. If you take a look at 1970-1980, the volatity is huge after decades of stable price. Get ready to see the big move of gold.

Spot Gold Yearly Chart (high and low)

2006-02-14T10:49:00.000-08:00

view more about spot gold history

Spot gold continue to drop... downside bias

2006-02-14T09:58:00.000-08:00

Asian market time Spot gold has dropped to below $540 to a day low around $535. Counted from the monthly top $574, Gold adjustment has been about $40, which is about 7% already. It is a normal adjustment as TA shows a serious overbought. Smart investors started to take profit and the adjustment begins.

Now gold price rise steadily and reached $546 now, which has lift the price up by $10 from the morning market. Seems that investors think the gold has taken enough rest and its time to pick up the bull again.

Monitor the gold using this free real time quote page, which includes popular index like HSI, Nikkei, DOW, forex and of course, Gold.

Gold undergoing adjustment before another bull run

2006-02-13T09:04:00.000-08:00

Gold is trading at $545-$555 range today.
Gold market starts at a low $545 today, once it tried to climbed over 550, but it cannot stand over it and drops back to the beginning.
China Gold related stocks suffers, 2899, 3330 boths drops by over 4%.
When will it pick up the bull again ? I guess it will take at current range for some more days because of TA overbought. Once the adjustment is finished, another surge will surely begin and Gold will test the $600 mark in a short while.
Stay close to gold price. Visit the real time gold quote page here.

GOLD COULD HIT $US725 ON CHINA DEMAND

2006-02-12T00:36:00.000-08:00

“Gold could hit $US725 on China demand” By Xiao Yu & Matt Chambers, Newsbreak.com, 8-9-2005
Yet another estimation on how high the gold price is predicted to climb to?

“Prices may reach $US725 an ounce by 2010 from the current level of $US437…” By Xiao Yu & Matt Chambers, Newsbreak.com, 8-9-2005

Now, more & more analysts are predicting for gold to climb still higher, but is there anyone we can trust with certainty who also is claiming that gold is set to rise signifacntly in the years ahead?

"It's possible that we'll see a significant increase in demand for gold jewellery [in China]," said Darren Heathcote, head of trading at NM Rothschild & Sons in Sydney.” By Xiao Yu & Matt Chambers, Newsbreak.com, 8-9-2005

Well, I will definitely trust the word of N. M. Rothschild & their predictions concerning the gold market. And another respected professional institution predicting higher gold prices?

"THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE MEDIUM TERM," said Tim Spencer, analyst with GFMS, a London research company (GFMS is the world's foremost precious metals consultancy, specialising in research into the global gold, silver, platinum & palladium markets.).” By Xiao Yu & Matt Chambers, Newsbreak.com, 8-9-2005

And why is China the trend setter today & the country to pay greater attention to?

“China's 1.3 billion consumers are already the world's biggest users of steel, cement, copper, tin and iron ore.” "The purchasing power of the Chinese for dollar-denominated commodities has clearly gone up," said George Albino, senior analyst at Orion Securities in Toronto.” By Xiao Yu & Matt Chambers, Newsbreak.com, 8-9-2005

Now read the tonnage figures below & digest the nearly TRIPLE demand increase that is being predicted for just the next 5 years of Chinese gold consumption.

“Chinese retail sales of gold jewellery rose more than 11 per cent to 224 tonnes in 2004, said GFMS. Sales might rise to as much as 600 tonnes within five years, said Merrill Lynch's Graham Birch, leading China to surpass India as the biggest consumer.” By Xiao Yu & Matt Chambers, Newsbreak.com, 8-9-2005

Investing in gold 2006

2006-02-11T10:21:00.000-08:00

The best performing major asset class for 2005 was gold. However, gold has lagged the commodities and precious metals boom and is still very cheap in relation to other commodities such as oil against which it has traditionally been benchmarked.

In fact, gold was at a 25-year low in terms of its value in barrels of oil this summer, and other metals have risen in price by a factor of several times. Therefore, don't be fooled into thinking that gold's recent rally has made gold expensive, on any rational analysis gold is very cheap, and you should always buy low and sell high.

Why is it that gold prices are only now getting back to where they stood 25 years ago? When you think of general price inflation in that period surely gold is due for a major revaluation. A university graduate in London earned perhaps $12,000 in 1980 compared with $45,000 today, yet gold prices are actually lower than in 1980.

In the investment world spotting an undervalued asset is the name of the game. Gold has also been in short supply for the past year as a physical commodity, while investors have begun to look at gold as a hedge against rising inflation due to the high oil price, and as a financial safe haven against likely problems in capital markets due to high US debt levels or even a serious outbreak of bird flu.

Zero sum investment
Another reason to buy gold for 2006 is simply that the alternatives do not look so bright. Hedge funds have had a lousy 2005; US equities have shifted sideways; US bonds have probably peaked and higher interest rates should depress bonds; real estate is beginning to feel the impact of higher interest rates; GCC equities look massively overbought and the best real estate opportunities have gone; and so the list goes on, US and UK property are in trouble too.

Choosing a safe haven in such an uncertain outlook is really a no-brainer. Instead of gold you could opt for a US dollar deposit account, but it is difficult to know if the US dollar will rise or fall in a tougher economic environment, and perhaps owning gold that is denominated in US dollars is sufficient exposure.

Hence a simple zero-sum investment game leads you to gold as the best option for investment in 2006, which is probably going to be a year in which capital preservation is more important to worry about that capital gain. How then should you invest in gold?

How to invest in gold
Buying gold bullion bars and coins is one idea, but gold is very heavy and this is not practical for larger investment amounts and not very secure either.

Thus a fund indexed to the price of gold such as GLD on the NYSE is an easy way to hold exposure to the price of the physical metal alone. For convenience you can buy and hold GLD in any online brokerage account, and sell it when you want to at the click of a button.

Secondly, the purchase of shares in the largest global gold mining companies is an excellent way of getting exposure to gold, and depending on their hedging policies gold mining company share prices tend to move upwards more quickly in value than the price of gold, so this is a leveraged investment to a degree.

The big names are well known, and easily researched on the Internet: Newmont Mining, Harmony, Gold Corp, Barrick Gold, and Placer Dome are some major gold mining companies to consider; and the least hedged of all, so that the share price moves up and down the most with the gold price is Seabridge Gold.

Thirdly, consider buying some gold futures contracts on the new Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange. At the time of writing December 2006 futures were trading at only a 6% premium over the spot price of gold, so if you think that is pessimistic then buy these contracts through a local brokerage.

For 2006 gold investors should consider physical gold or a gold index first, and then add a few major gold mining companies and DGCX gold futures contracts. But for real performance the junior gold exploration stocks should be considered, and these smaller capitalization firms will be reviewed in Part Two of this article.

original article can be viewed here

Analysts see gold as high as $600 in 2006

2006-02-11T10:13:00.000-08:00

Gold, at its highest in a quarter of a century, is set for further gains in 2006 and has the potential to breach $600 an ounce, analysts said on Wednesday. Investment bank Macquarie and precious metals refiner Heraeus said gold had strong fundamentals.

Another bank, Barclays Capital, was more skeptical about many of the factors often used to explain gold's rally, but said it recognized early signs of a changing attitude toward bullion among longer-term investors.

Further dollar weakness, talk that Asian central banks might buy gold and increased inflows of new investment money were all cited as positive factors for bullion.

post from libertypost.org

Why gold is soaring -- and could keep going

2006-02-11T10:09:00.000-08:00

It's not just inflation worries driving gold futures to new highs. Here are some ways you can still stake a claim in the rally by investing in companies that mine the metal.

In the article from MSN Money, author Robert Walberg talks about Gold.
After spending most of the year confined to a $30 range, gold futures have exploded to their highest level in nearly two decades. Since bottoming on July 15 this year, gold is up 20.5%, with 12% of that gain coming in just the last month. Gold stocks have done even better, gaining an average of 61% since bottoming in mid-May.

The rally is finally starting to draw the attention of investors, who want to know what's behind the big surge in gold prices and gold stocks -- and, more importantly, if it's too late to take part in the rally.

One reason cited for the price move is investor concern over inflation. However, there are many more direct hedges against inflation in today's investment world than gold futures. Oil futures quickly come to mind -- especially considering that the big jump in crude over the last year is largely responsible for the inflationary pressures in today's economy.

Some points he noted:
-If not inflation worries, then what?
-Demand grows while mines decline
-There's still some luster in gold stocks

Gold in adjustment... range 550-570

2006-02-11T07:31:00.000-08:00

Climbed over $560 yesterday, then lost momentum and dropped below $550 to $545 again.
Then Gold price bounced back a little and close at $550.

Gold for this week dropped by about US$10. It may continue to trade within the $550-570 range.

BTW, there is a real time quote page for HSI, DOW, forex, gold and crude oil. Hope it is helpful to all of you.

Gold investment - 2006 is another year of big rally

2006-02-09T08:17:00.000-08:00

Spot Gold price has been keep rising for the past years (2001 - 2005). Will it continue to rise in 2006 ?
In an article from ezine.softbath.net The author has mentioned 5 points why gold will continue to rise.
Read the full article here.

The main reason is about the balance of supply and demand, and gold has turned bull and weak US dollars.
I totally agree with it. Guess the top ? I dunno. It can go really high since the gold turnover is small.

Spot gold bounce back by 8 dollars

2006-02-09T08:00:00.000-08:00

gold price rise back by 8 dollars to about $560. The 25 years high has been $574.
Today the day low has gone below $550.

The rally has been too quick and need some adjustment. It comes fast, drops fast, and pick up the rally again fast. It is really not easy to get profit from gold day trading.

If you trade gold future yesterday, you would probably loss everything for your contact because of the level effect. One contract is about HKD 22000 and yesterday it simply drops US20 to make you loss 22K. Then all your money is gone in a single day !

Always be patient, and do long term investment. The gold surge should last for several years.

Stay close at gold price, and watch how it rocks !!

Gold Price Rebound after big sell off

2006-02-08T18:05:00.000-08:00

Yesterday gold price has reached a low of $545, dropped nearly $30 from its highest record $574.
The sell off seems stops with a rebound today. Spot gold stay at $550 for half a day. Then it jumps to $558 during Asia market time.
Will the surge continue and make another record high ?

gold price

2006-02-07T18:52:00.000-08:00

oh my god.... gold price drop by US$20 in a single day.
my gold stock (2899) immediately lost 8% day, and touch my cut profit point... I didn't cut profit, as it rebounce immediately afterwards.
I hope spot gold can pick up the rally again and test US $600 in the short run. I still have full confidence that US dollar will be weak, and Gold will benefit from weak dollar and strong demand. Someone is seeing Gold heading to $1000 !! You can view his reasons in the article.
Good luck Gold ! And always be strong !

gold price will rise to US $800 ?

2006-02-05T10:34:00.000-08:00

Gold trading becomes one of the hottest trade nowadays. Since the Gold central has a yearly quota to sell gold. Once all the gold quota is reached and demand is still strong, Gold price will raise, since supply is getting limited.
Gold price has reached 25 year high of about $574 recently, and very probability it will test $600, $700, $800, and test the record high $850 mark done on 1980.
Keep track on Gold price. There are many free sits offering real time gold quote and related news. The most popular one is kitco. And I have collected a few of gold links in my gold collection page. Stay close and get ready to rock !!